If Congress actually cancels the SLS rocket, what happens next?

Source: https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/05/if-congress-actually-cancels-the-sls-rocket-what-happens-next/

Summary

If Congress cancels the SLS rocket, NASA's Artemis program would face significant delays, particularly impacting missions beyond Artemis II, potentially requiring a re-scoping of Artemis III. The Lunar Gateway construction could also be affected, necessitating alternative launch solutions. Long-term Mars ambitions and deep space science missions would also be impacted, possibly requiring multiple launches and in-space assembly. Commercial alternatives like SpaceX's Starship and Falcon Heavy, and Blue Origin's New Glenn, could fill the void, or a combination of rockets from multiple providers. The SLS's future depends on balancing congressional support, White House perspectives, and the evolving capabilities of the commercial space industry.

Full News Report

## If Congress Actually Cancels the SLS Rocket, What Happens Next? **Washington D.C.** – In a potential seismic shift for NASA's deep space exploration program, the future of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket hangs in the balance. While unlikely given strong congressional support, a scenario where **congress cancels** the **SLS rocket** is increasingly discussed as budget pressures mount and alternative launch solutions mature. **Heres** a look at what NASA's exploration plans would *actually* look like if the White House, or evolving congressional priorities, got its way and the SLS program was defunded or substantially restructured. What would replace it? What missions would be delayed or canceled? And how would this impact the long-term goals of returning humans to the Moon and eventually reaching Mars? The SLS, designed to be NASA's heavy-lift workhorse for the Artemis program, has faced consistent criticism for its cost overruns and developmental delays. While Congress has traditionally been a staunch supporter, primarily due to the jobs and economic benefits tied to the program in key states, the escalating costs are starting to raise questions about its long-term viability. ### The Hypothetical Cancellation: What Would Trigger It? The chances of outright cancellation are slim. However, a confluence of factors could contribute to a scenario where Congress significantly scales back or ultimately cancels the SLS. These factors include: * **Continued Cost Overruns:** If the SLS continues to exceed its projected budget without significant performance improvements, the pressure to find alternatives will intensify. Cost overruns detract funds from other critical NASA programs. * **Developmental Delays:** Further delays in future SLS block upgrades or the development of the Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) would undermine its utility and further erode confidence in the program. The delays would impact the timelines for missions like Europa Clipper's ultimate deep space deployment. * **The Rise of Commercial Alternatives:** The increasing capabilities and reliability of commercial launch providers like SpaceX and Blue Origin present a compelling alternative. These companies are developing heavy-lift rockets that could potentially perform similar missions at a fraction of the cost. * **Shifting Political Priorities:** A change in presidential administration or a significant shift in congressional leadership could alter the political landscape and lead to a reassessment of NASA's priorities and budget allocations. * **Budgetary Constraints:** Broader economic pressures or competing demands for federal funding could force Congress to make difficult choices about which programs to prioritize. NASA, while popular, could face cuts in order to fund other pressing national needs. ### The immediate Consequences: Impacts on Artemis If **Congress cancels** the **SLS**, the immediate impact would be felt by the Artemis program, NASA's flagship initiative to return humans to the Moon. The SLS is currently slated to launch the Orion spacecraft on the Artemis missions, beginning with Artemis I (already completed successfully) and subsequently Artemis II, III, and beyond. * **Delayed Artemis Missions:** Missions beyond Artemis II, which is currently slated for a crewed lunar flyby, would be significantly delayed. Artemis III, the mission intended to land astronauts near the lunar south pole, would be particularly vulnerable. The timetable could slip by years, if not be outright re-planned to use different rockets. * **Re-scoping Artemis III:** NASA would need to re-scope the mission and find alternative launch vehicles capable of sending the Orion spacecraft and lunar lander to the Moon. This could involve launching different components separately on different rockets and then assembling them in lunar orbit, adding complexity and risk to the mission. The choice of lander also comes back into question. * **Impact on Gateway:** The construction of the Lunar Gateway, a planned orbiting outpost that will serve as a staging point for lunar missions, could also be affected. The SLS was originally intended to launch some of the Gateway modules. Alternatives would need to be found, potentially delaying the station's construction and operational capabilities. ### The Long-Term Impacts: Deep Space Exploration Beyond the Moon The cancellation of the SLS would have implications extending far beyond the Artemis program and impacting NASA's broader goals for deep space exploration. * **Mars Ambitions:** The SLS was seen as a crucial component of NASA's long-term plan to send humans to Mars. Its heavy-lift capabilities were considered essential for launching large spacecraft and habitats needed for a Mars mission. Without the SLS, NASA would need to rely on alternative launch solutions, potentially involving multiple launches and in-space assembly, which could increase the complexity and cost of a Mars mission. The entire timeline for human exploration of Mars gets significantly pushed back, potentially by decades. * **Deep Space Science Missions:** The SLS was also envisioned for launching ambitious deep space science missions, such as probes to explore the outer solar system. Its ability to carry large and heavy payloads would allow for more complex instruments and longer mission durations. Without it, future deep space science missions may need to be scaled back or rely on smaller, less capable launch vehicles. ### Alternative Launch Options: What Could Replace SLS? If **Congress cancels** the **SLS**, NASA would likely turn to commercial launch providers for alternative solutions. Several rockets are in development or already operational that could potentially fulfill some of the roles intended for the SLS. * **SpaceX Starship:** SpaceX's Starship is a fully reusable super-heavy-lift launch vehicle currently under development. It is designed to be even more powerful than the SLS and could potentially launch entire Mars missions in a single launch. However, Starship is still in the early stages of development and faces significant technical challenges. Its reliance on orbital refueling, and the infrastructure to support such a model, could become limitations to its widespread use. * **SpaceX Falcon Heavy:** SpaceX's Falcon Heavy is currently the most powerful operational rocket. It has already demonstrated its ability to launch heavy payloads into orbit and could potentially be used for some of the Artemis missions. However, the Falcon Heavy lacks the lift capacity of the SLS, so multiple launches would be required for missions that require sending very large and heavy payloads to the Moon. * **Blue Origin New Glenn:** Blue Origin's New Glenn is a heavy-lift rocket currently under development. It is designed to be partially reusable and could potentially be used for lunar missions. Like Starship, New Glenn is still under development and faces its own set of technical challenges. * **A Combination of Rockets:** One plausible scenario would involve a combination of different rockets from multiple providers. For example, a Falcon Heavy could launch the Orion spacecraft, while a separate rocket could launch the lunar lander. The two spacecraft could then rendezvous and dock in lunar orbit. This approach would add complexity and require careful coordination, but it could be a viable alternative to the SLS. ### The Political Landscape: What Does the Future Hold? The future of the SLS rocket remains uncertain. While **congress** has historically supported the program, the rising costs and the emergence of credible commercial alternatives are putting pressure on lawmakers to reconsider their position. **Heres** the breakdown: * **Congressional Support:** The SLS enjoys strong support from members of Congress whose states are home to companies and NASA facilities involved in the program. These lawmakers are likely to continue to fight for the SLS, citing its importance to national security and technological leadership. * **The White House's Perspective:** The White House has been critical of the SLS's cost and schedule, advocating for greater reliance on commercial launch providers. The Biden administration has signaled a willingness to consider alternatives, but is also keen on maintaining bipartisan support for NASA's exploration goals. * **The Evolving Space Industry:** The rapid pace of innovation in the commercial space industry is constantly changing the landscape. As commercial rockets become more powerful and reliable, the case for the SLS becomes increasingly difficult to justify. The question isn't just about the **SLS rocket** itself; it's about the broader direction of NASA's exploration program. Will NASA continue to rely on government-developed rockets, or will it embrace the capabilities of the commercial space industry? The answer to this question will have a profound impact on the future of human space exploration. Ultimately, the fate of the SLS hinges on its ability to deliver on its promises. If it can successfully launch Artemis missions on time and within budget, it is likely to retain congressional support. However, if it continues to face delays and cost overruns, the calls for cancellation will only grow louder. The coming years will be crucial in determining the future of this controversial but potentially groundbreaking rocket.